Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02a7…0b0e crypto 667 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-2%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate65%433W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$284
7 days−$284
14 days−$302
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$298
other 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 589 -4.6% -13.7% 66% 40% -14.5%
≤30d 591 -4.9% -13.9% 65% 39% -14.9%
≤90d 591 -4.9% -13.9% 65% 39% -14.9%
all 667 -4.4% -13.5% 65% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 36% -13.9%
10% -21.7% 26% -22.2%
15% -29.3% 10% -29.7%
20% -36.2% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses433 / 234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)667 / 667
History coverage165d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 667 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$4 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$19 -63%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$10 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$14 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$18 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$10 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$18 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$9 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$11 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$12 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $14 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $11 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $0 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $21 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $17 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $11 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2099 history records