Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02a5…cb74 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,568 (-1%) realized −$1,568 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 102L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$914per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$48
politics 36% −$40
sports 6% −$1,495
economics 5% +$1
world 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -2.1% -11.5% 6% 0% -11.5%
all 130 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 12% -10.7%
10% -18.1% 12% -19.3%
15% -26.0% 8% -27.1%
20% -33.2% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,299) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,060
Realized−$1,568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage164d
Avg bet$914
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $841 $841 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $335 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $911 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,224 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,457 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $422 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $498 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,868 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $519 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $980 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1,577 +$3 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $3,723 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,949 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1,767 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,846 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,829 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $4,013 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,437 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,343 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $3,807 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,351 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 10 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $219 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $393 2h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $394 4h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $334 22h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $335 25h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $618 6d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $619 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $549 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $550 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $841 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $971 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $972 13d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,150 14d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,152 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,310 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,312 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,138 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,071 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $909 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $911 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $907 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $909 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,060.16 · official $1,060.16 (match) · 418 history records