Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02a3…60f4 weather 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-8%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$25
14 days−$28
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$29
sports 1% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -28.7% -35.5% 47% 6% -23.0%
≤30d 41 -21.9% -29.4% 51% 10% -18.1%
≤90d 74 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 19% -18.7%
all 74 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 19% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 19% -18.7%
10% -32.1% 19% -26.5%
15% -38.6% 18% -33.6%
20% -44.6% 16% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 25? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 22? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? May 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 18? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 18? May 20 $6 +$9 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 15? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 16? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $4 +$9 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16? May 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $1 +$3 +286%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.85 · official $6.85 (match) · 165 history records