Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x02a2…afca world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$2
other 9% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 11% -9.3%
all 36 +1.1% -8.6% 47% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 11% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 6% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage489d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $13 +$3 +21%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $4 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson Mar 20 $3 +$2 +75%
FCSB vs. PAOK Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $45 30m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $19 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $21 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $46 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $46 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $37 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $46 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records