Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02a1…0dbd other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$382 (+5%) realized +$392 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days+$251
14 days+$517
30 days+$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$533
sports 7% +$15
crypto 4% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -45.8% -51.0% 37% 32% -3.8%
≤30d 24 -35.8% -42.0% 42% 38% -0.7%
≤90d 29 -46.9% -52.0% 34% 31% -5.6%
all 30 -43.4% -48.8% 37% 33% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 33% -5.0%
10% -53.7% 23% -14.1%
15% -58.2% 20% -22.4%
20% -62.3% 17% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$53 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$755
Realized+$392
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage229d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,645 −$140 -8%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$148 +73%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 −$147 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$162 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $551 +$53 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,204 +$144 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$94 +93%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$100 +98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $985 +$181 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 02 $60 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 02 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 02 $110 −$106 -96%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $70 +$41 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $202 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $31 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $51 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $1,579 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $1,502 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $71 13h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 34h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $666 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $604 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $755.45 · official $755.45 (match) · 68 history records