Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

02 0x029c…7329 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,309 (+27%) realized +$2,145 · open +$164

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%13W / 8L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$374per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$103est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$289

7 days+$2,167

14 days+$2,237

30 days+$2,237

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+4.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+30.6%	+18.2%	71%	71%	+23.0%
≤30d	21	+15.2%	+4.3%	62%	62%	+16.3%
≤90d	21	+15.2%	+4.3%	62%	62%	+16.3%
all	21	+15.2%	+4.3%	62%	62%	+16.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.3%	62%	+16.3%
10%	-5.7%	62%	+5.2%
15%	-14.8%	57%	-5.0%
20%	-23.2%	52%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +23% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$309 vs −$223 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$904

Realized+$2,145

Unrealized+$164

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses13 / 8

Est. fees paid−$103

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage10d

Avg bet$374

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Under	51¢	63¢	$470	$581	+$111 (+24%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Under	61¢	73¢	$270	$323	+$53 (+20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 21	$152	+$102	+67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$152	−$150	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$304	+$251	+83%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$71	+$95	+134%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$296	+$289	+98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$304	−$300	-99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$101	+$91	+90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$405	+$278	+69%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$305	+$347	+114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$305	−$300	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$62	−$60	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$304	+$196	+65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 16	$756	+$617	+82%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$2,519	+$708	+28%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$707	−$700	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$152	+$166	+109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$103	−$102	-99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 12	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$71	+$29	+41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$71	−$70	-98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$606	+$846	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$122	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	61¢	$121	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$355	2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	61¢	$152	2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	48¢	$152	5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	59¢	$152	5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	54¢	$304	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	42¢	$71	23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	50¢	$203	25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	49¢	$93	25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$304	28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	52¢	$101	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	59¢	$405	2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	46¢	$305	3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$305	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$62	4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$304	4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	94¢	$1,372	6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	SELL Germany	96¢	$3,227	6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	74¢	$504	6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	74¢	$2,015	6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	51¢	$756	6d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$707	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$319	8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	11¢	$31	8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	11¢	$72	8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	15¢	$72	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$152	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $903.70 · official $846.20 · 46 history records