Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0298…43fe other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$13
politics 26% +$33
sports 9% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% +28.1%
≤30d 2 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% +28.1%
≤90d 4 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 25% -31.9%
all 6 -35.5% -41.7% 33% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 33% -12.4%
10% -47.3% 33% -20.8%
15% -52.4% 33% -28.5%
20% -57.0% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage248d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 06 $25 −$15 -61%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $49 +$48 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 47d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 83d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 162d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 223d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $97 246d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes 50¢ $49 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.35 · official $89.35 (match) · 12 history records