Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0294…5396 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$263 (+1%) realized +$264 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate68%55W / 26L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$45
other 30% +$209
sports 5% +$2
politics 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.5% +10.8% 100% 100% +10.8%
≤30d 1 +22.5% +10.8% 100% 100% +10.8%
≤90d 2 +11.3% +0.7% 100% 50% -9.1%
all 81 -8.1% -16.9% 68% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 5% -9.0%
10% -24.8% 4% -17.7%
15% -32.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -38.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$541) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.81 per $1 lost it wins $12.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses55 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 86
History coverage259d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 12 $549 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 17 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 07 $547 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 03 $547 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 26 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 14 $505 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Feb 09 $1,010 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Feb 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 09 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 05 $505 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Jan 30 $500 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 29 $500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 28 $2,180 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 22 $2,172 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 21 $1,085 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 16 $541 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11? Jan 11 $541 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 04 $540 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 1? Jan 01 $539 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $538 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $538 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 24? Dec 25 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $350 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21? Dec 21 $280 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 15-21? Dec 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $537 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $236 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 12? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 09 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 03 $537 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 29 $4,970 +$210 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Nov 29 $287 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $287 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Nov 22 $286 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Nov 19 $286 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $286 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $500 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $508 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $501 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $549 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $549 79d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $549 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $548 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $548 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $547 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $408 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $126 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $547 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.46 · official $531.46 (match) · 269 history records