Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0294…76a0 weather 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 70 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 70 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.7%
all 70 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 0% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 0% -23.8%
15% -30.8% 0% -31.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $46 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $97 −$13 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 −$8 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $21 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 −$14 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $24 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $55 −$13 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $79 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $13 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL No 47¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 55¢ $27 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 55¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 44¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 45¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 45¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL No 57¢ $23 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL No 59¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 58¢ $29 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 50¢ $24 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 30¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 30¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records