Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
02 0x0294…138c other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,586 (+7%) realized +$11,740 · open +$846
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,795per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1,348est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$26,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,414
7 days−$15,128
14 days−$4,547
30 days−$2,599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$5,598
other 47% +$4,079
world 3% +$769
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.3% -20.7% 38% 25% -31.3%
≤30d 22 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 27% -11.6%
≤90d 65 +0.7% -8.8% 57% 35% -4.3%
all 65 +0.7% -8.8% 57% 35% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 35% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 25% -13.5%
15% -25.5% 18% -21.8%
20% -32.8% 18% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$2,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,378 vs −$1,532 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$26,403
Realized+$11,740
Unrealized+$846
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,348
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage84d
Avg bet$2,795
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10,090 $11,408 +$1,318 (+13%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 44¢ $9,864 $9,752 −$112 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,103 $2,793 −$310 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,500 $2,450 −$50 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $8,870 +$6,929 +78%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,463 −$2,412 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,033 +$1,729 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,416 +$4,168 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,855 −$463 -8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,085 +$769 +15%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,093 −$6,970 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10,379 −$1,333 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7,509 −$7,459 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,160 −$9,988 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,496 +$10,112 +96%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10,000 +$469 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $2,432 +$768 +32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $25,857 +$2,420 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $712 −$700 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $552 −$540 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 May 07 $1,592 −$1,573 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5,500 +$1,700 +31%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $3,229 −$3,200 -99%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) May 05 $540 $0 +0%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $708 +$458 +65%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) May 03 $1,426 +$1,325 +93%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $6,099 +$8,339 +137%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $4,048 −$4,048 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $750 −$750 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $2,250 +$1,675 +74%
Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $5,640 +$5,472 +97%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 $0 +31%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -99%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $1,500 −$1,477 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $266 +$3 +1%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $98 −$85 -86%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2,500 +$3,854 +154%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1,313 +$21 +2%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $99 +$107 +108%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $86 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $1,384 −$120 -9%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $993 −$13 -1%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 01 $193 +$19 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1,000 −$22 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1,000 −$12 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $10,030 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,573 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,861 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $280 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $11,821 10h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $3,977 10h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $8,870 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,463 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $2,416 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3,033 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $103 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5,392 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $103 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $10 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5,855 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $5,853 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $5,085 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $7,093 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $9,046 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1,950 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2,784 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $28 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $22 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,402.61 · official $26,402.61 (match) · 581 history records