Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0293…64e7 crypto 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$125
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$123
sports 5% +$21
other 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -13.2% -21.4% 34% 27% -16.5%
≤30d 94 -13.0% -21.2% 35% 27% -16.1%
≤90d 94 -13.0% -21.2% 35% 27% -16.1%
all 94 -13.0% -21.2% 35% 27% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 27% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 26% -24.1%
15% -35.7% 18% -31.5%
20% -42.0% 12% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.88 (match) · 377 history records