Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
02 0x0293…7c21 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-4%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$15
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +39.7%
≤30d 1 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +39.7%
≤90d 1 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +39.7%
all 25 +14.6% +3.7% 60% 52% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 52% -13.8%
10% -6.3% 44% -22.1%
15% -15.3% 36% -29.6%
20% -23.6% 32% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage128d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 18 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 18 $19 −$8 -43%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 18 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 17 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 15 $13 −$6 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 15 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 15 $7 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 13 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 13 $14 +$29 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 09 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 08 $17 +$49 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 08 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 08 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 117d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 117d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 117d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $11 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 117d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 117d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 117d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 117d
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 119d
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 119d
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $10 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $3.78 (match) · 66 history records