Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0293…e800 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$3
sports 25% −$1
crypto 11% $0
other 7% +$1
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -2.5% -11.8% 18% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage220d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $93 $0 +0%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 13 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $96 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 09 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 36h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 12d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $93 118d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla BUY No 100¢ $91 127d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 135d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 141d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 141d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 145d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $90 145d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $90 147d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 148d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 149d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 149d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 151d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $94 151d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $94 152d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $92 153d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $92 153d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 154d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 154d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $89 154d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $89 155d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 0¢ $0 155d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $87 156d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $87 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.00 · official $21.00 (match) · 135 history records