Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0293…0a8d other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 25% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 5% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.8%
all 46 +1.5% -8.1% 22% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage325d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $42 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $25 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 08 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 01 $48 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $42 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records