Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x028f…9e2a crypto 1263 markets active 3d ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$792 (-8%) realized −$792 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%903W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$32
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 +1.9% -7.8% 78% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 774 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 40% -15.0%
≤90d 1263 -1.1% -10.5% 71% 43% -12.9%
all 1263 -1.1% -10.5% 71% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 43% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 19% -21.2%
15% -26.9% 9% -28.8%
20% -34.1% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$792
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses903 / 360
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1263 / 1263
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1263 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.72 · official $67.72 (match) · 3500 history records