Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x028b…4ad0 weather 427 markets active 6d ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate68%291W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day144.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$92
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$19
sports 7% −$57
crypto 6% −$34
other 3% +$2
tech 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -8.3% -17.1% 52% 6% -20.5%
≤30d 427 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 19% -11.9%
≤90d 427 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 19% -11.9%
all 427 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 19% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 19% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 9% -20.3%
15% -28.3% 4% -28.0%
20% -35.4% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses291 / 136
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 427
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day144.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$6 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? SELL No 90¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 82¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? SELL No 97¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1691 history records