Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x028a…e84e
other · 60 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage81d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 5 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 54¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $511 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $116 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $99 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $99 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $866 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $777 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $370 $0 -0%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 11 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $796 −$2 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $18 +$1 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $777 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $397 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $386 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$10
sports 30% $0
economics 11% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $98 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 7d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 7d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $101 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $101 13d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 18d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 18d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $103 25d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 25d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 26d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 26d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 26d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 26d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -3.2% -12.4% 20% 2% -9.6%
all 55 -3.2% -12.4% 20% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.58 · official $106.59 (match) · 218 history records