Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0288…d979 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$595 (-8%) realized −$565 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$412
14 days−$402
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$599
other 3% −$205
sports 2% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.1% -43.1% 36% 27% -25.8%
≤30d 31 -16.4% -24.4% 52% 29% -19.3%
≤90d 46 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 33% -21.1%
all 46 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 33% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 33% -21.1%
10% -28.7% 15% -28.7%
15% -35.6% 7% -35.6%
20% -41.9% 4% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$63 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$565
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage46d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? No 90¢ 90¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 86¢ 90¢ $61 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $70 $53 −$17 (-24%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $160 −$93 -58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $223 −$173 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 −$136 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $270 +$30 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $384 +$69 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $370 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $317 −$42 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $179 +$21 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 −$4 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $174 +$26 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $262 −$42 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $81 +$19 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $177 +$23 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $381 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 −$10 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $41 −$11 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $62 +$8 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $90 −$10 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $88 +$12 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $107 +$23 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $249 −$143 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $38 −$4 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $144 −$137 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $172 −$20 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $152 +$48 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $71 +$54 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? May 17 $324 −$324 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $67 +$33 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $31 +$46 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $193 +$57 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $184 −$68 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $361 −$22 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8? May 11 $120 +$38 +31%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 07 $27 −$26 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $27 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 35¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 35¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $61 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $160 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $88 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $88 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 10¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $320 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 20¢ $19 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 22¢ $23 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $266 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 50¢ $207 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 54¢ $314 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 39¢ $81 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 53¢ $109 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 54¢ $111 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $274 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $158 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $158 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 85¢ $145 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.51 · official $268.51 (match) · 176 history records