Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0287…4923 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,453 (+33%) realized +$1,454 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,372
other 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.6% +1.9% 69% 56% +18.1%
≤30d 16 +12.6% +1.9% 69% 56% +18.1%
≤90d 16 +12.6% +1.9% 69% 56% +18.1%
all 16 +12.6% +1.9% 69% 56% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 56% +18.1%
10% -7.8% 56% +6.8%
15% -16.7% 44% -3.5%
20% -24.9% 31% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$37 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.21 per $1 lost it wins $8.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$1,454
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 −$1 -2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $21 +$22 +108%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $21 −$9 -42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $58 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,210 +$692 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 +$19 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 −$69 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $308 +$351 +114%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,082 +$64 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,177 +$267 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $66 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $42 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $31 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $43 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $12 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $43 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $21 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $63 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $58 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $1,902 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1,210 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $21 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $91 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $71 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $71 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $84 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $659 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $79 35h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $1,146 35h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $1,082 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $308 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,443 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 82¢ $1,069 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $108 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.05 · official $94.05 (match) · 32 history records