Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

02 0x0287…38aa other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$97 (-33%) realized −$48 · open −$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-6.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+3.6%	-6.3%	50%	50%	-6.2%
≤30d	2	+3.6%	-6.3%	50%	50%	-6.2%
≤90d	2	+3.6%	-6.3%	50%	50%	-6.2%
all	2	+3.6%	-6.3%	50%	50%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.3%	50%	-6.2%
10%	-15.3%	50%	-15.2%
15%	-23.4%	50%	-23.4%
20%	-30.9%	50%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$107 vs −$100 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized−$48

Unrealized−$49

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	40¢	44¢	$36	$39	+$3 (+9%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	26¢	0¢	$52	$0	−$52 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$100	+$107	+107%
Spread: France (-4.5)	Jun 29	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	40¢	$37	50m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$53	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$207	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	47¢	$100	3h
Spread: France (-4.5)	BUY France	11¢	$100	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.49 · official $39.49 (match) · 6 history records