Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x0287…a0c2
sports · 247 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$612 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$616 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$9
Realized−$616
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses151 / 86
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)237 / 247
History coverage376d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$130
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Morocco 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Miami Marlins 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 90¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Samsung Lions 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 46¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Over 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 61¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Lotte Giants 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2 −$1 -39%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 +$1 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $8 +$1 +10%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 −$1 -24%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $2 +$2 +81%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1 +$1 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$121
politics 21% −$492
other 3% +$10
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $1 9m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 73¢ $1 10m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 10m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $1 11m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 12m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $1 12m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 18m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 19m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $11 20m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 31m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $11 57m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE $0 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $1 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 39¢ $6 2h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $8 2h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 89¢ $7 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $1 4h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 19¢ $1 5h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster $1 6h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $1 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $1 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $1 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $1 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays $0 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 SELL Over $0 9h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $6 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $1 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 12h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 51% -11.3%
≤30d 219 -9.2% -17.8% 64% 49% -14.5%
≤90d 232 -7.9% -16.7% 65% 50% -13.3%
all 237 -9.0% -17.6% 64% 49% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 49% -24.3%
10% -25.5% 34% -31.6%
15% -32.7% 23% -38.2%
20% -39.3% 14% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.21 · official $9.21 (match) · 656 history records