Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0285…e61e world 26 markets active 14h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$1
other 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -10.0%
all 26 +20.3% +8.9% 62% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -1.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -11.1% 4% -26.3%
20% -19.8% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage472d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 +524%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 19 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $16 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $29 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records