Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0285…75b7 other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$33
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$44
sports 20% −$9
politics 10% −$8
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage130d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $408 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $176 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $571 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $806 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $215 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $401 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $423 −$3 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $444 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $309 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $248 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $375 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $241 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 59m
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 6h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $52 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 19h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 20h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 22h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 29h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 30h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 32h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 32h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 37h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 38h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 41h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 43h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 45h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.83 · official $51.83 (match) · 1312 history records