Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0284…97f6 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,897 (-5%) realized −$1,956 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 56L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$398est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$352
7 days−$864
14 days−$2,168
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -19.7% -27.3% 48% 48% -22.1%
≤30d 102 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 52% -13.6%
≤90d 115 -13.3% -21.5% 51% 50% -15.8%
all 115 -13.3% -21.5% 51% 50% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 50% -15.8%
10% -29.0% 46% -23.9%
15% -35.9% 43% -31.2%
20% -42.2% 37% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$231 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized−$1,956
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$398
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage34d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage REJECT 57¢ 66¢ $364 $423 +$59 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $536 −$471 -88%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $324 +$212 +66%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $200 +$124 +62%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $314 −$310 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $269 +$46 +17%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $71 +$47 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $94 −$93 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Daria Egorova Jun 20 $32 −$26 -79%
ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Andrea Colombo Jun 20 $31 +$18 +57%
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Martina Colmegna Jun 20 $32 +$7 +23%
ITF Zhengzhou: Jiaqi Wang vs Daria Khomutsianskaya Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Amelie Justine Hejtmanek vs Marie Mettraux Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Mia Slama Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Mara Guth Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
ITF Bolszewo: Briana Szabo vs Victoria Bosio Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
ITF Mohammedia: Federica Sacco vs Martina Colmegna Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Sandro Kopp Jun 19 $5 +$5 +97%
ITF Klosters: Elsa Bonelli vs Emily Seibold Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu Jun 19 $5 +$3 +55%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Eugenia Zozaya Menendez vs Marie Mettraux Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
ITF Bucharest: Alesia Breaz vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
ITF Gyula: Peter Fajta vs Aleksandr Braynin Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Naoki Nakagawa Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs John Sperle Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Natalija Senic Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Monastir: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Ergi Kirkin Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Klosters: Berta Passola vs Laura Mair Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Andrea De Marchi Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Oscar Brown vs George Lazarov Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Taipei: Misaki Matsuda vs Haruka Kaji Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Franziska Sziedat Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Anna Kubareva Jun 18 $5 −$4 -84%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
ITF Mohammedia: Ekaterina Perelygina vs Martina Colmegna Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Masha Lazarenko Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
ITF Monastir: Danil Panarin vs Ergi Kirkin Jun 18 $5 +$3 +62%
ITF Haskovo: Lia Karatancheva vs Cagla Buyukakcay Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Izan Almazan Valiente vs Alejandro Juan Mano Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Hibah Shaikh vs Lidia Encheva Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Daria Egorova Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Amelie Justine Hejtmanek Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 58¢ $5 31m
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 57¢ $181 38m
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 57¢ $10 39m
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 57¢ $103 39m
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 56¢ $66 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL REKONIX 9¢ $65 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 72¢ $536 6h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A SELL Grind Back 100¢ $536 15h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 61¢ $13 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 62¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 62¢ $36 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 58¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 58¢ $43 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 57¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 60¢ $166 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 58¢ $44 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 58¢ $4 17h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 100¢ $324 17h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 61¢ $200 22h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $314 25h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $164 25h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $150 25h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 85¢ $269 26h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $118 26h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 59¢ $71 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $94 2d
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Daria Egorova SELL Luna Vujovic 14¢ $7 2d
ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Andrea Colombo SELL Aziz Ouakaa 100¢ $48 2d
ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Andrea Colombo BUY Aziz Ouakaa 63¢ $31 3d
ITF Zhengzhou: Jiaqi Wang vs Daria Khomutsianskaya BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 61¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.04 · official $439.07 · 343 history records