Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0283…bec9 crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+3%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%55W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day68.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 37% -8.0%
≤30d 94 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 37% -8.0%
≤90d 94 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 37% -8.0%
all 94 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 37% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 37% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 21% -16.8%
15% -30.8% 18% -24.9%
20% -37.6% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses55 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day68.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $87 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $90 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $71 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $80 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $71 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $70 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records