Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x0283…86f1 crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate63%90W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% $0
other 26% −$1
politics 10% −$2
sports 6% −$23
world 4% +$2
tech 2% −$1
weather 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -19.9% -27.5% 80% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 104 -8.3% -17.0% 62% 4% -9.8%
all 142 -5.1% -14.2% 63% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses90 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage119d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 1? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jong-bae win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial e Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31? Jun 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 2? Jun 26 $78 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $82 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $5 −$4 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 31 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $127 $0 +0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $116 $0 -0%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Orbit Anonymo (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 26 $128 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 24 $134 $0 +0%
Will Veronika Kudermetova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan May 21 $3 +$2 +79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 21 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 18 $136 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $136 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $136 $0 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $128 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 13? May 14 $132 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $137 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 11 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $135 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $142 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jelena Ostapenko vs Amanda Anisimova May 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $139 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $132 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $141 $0 +0%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.65 on May 5? May 06 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 5? May 05 $144 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $143 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $143 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of April 27 above $680? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$320 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $78 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 49¢ $4 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $5 26d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will Lee Jong-bae win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial e BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 28d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 31d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 31d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Orbit Anonymo (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs BUY Orbit Anonymo 14¢ $1 31d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 31d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $119 31d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 32d
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 59¢ $5 32d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $125 32d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $125 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 34d
Will Veronika Kudermetova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 100¢ $125 34d
Will Veronika Kudermetova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 100¢ $125 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 37d
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan BUY Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 55¢ $3 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $136 39d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $136 39d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.81 · official $106.81 (match) · 272 history records