Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0283…5e6a other 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$45
sports 25% −$23
economics 8% −$7
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage142d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $458 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $406 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $827 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $189 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $327 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $637 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $815 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $376 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 4h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 5h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 10h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 12h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $52 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $52 16h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 26h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 27h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 29h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 30h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 32h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 36h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 43h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 45h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 47h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.85 · official $51.85 (match) · 1489 history records