Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x027e…0310 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
other 38% +$1
politics 11% −$2
sports 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -1.8% -11.2% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -1.8% -11.2% 17% 0% -10.4%
all 33 -1.8% -11.2% 18% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage268d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $67 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $9 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $11 $0 -3%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 04 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $53 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $51 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $8 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $28 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $32 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $5 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $52 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $5 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $47 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.81 · official $52.70 (match) · 204 history records