Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x027e…bf29
crypto · 54 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 54
History coverage126d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 8 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs illwill 29¢ 39¢ $19 $25 +$7 (+36%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 76¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 36¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Boston Breach 33¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 25? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$18 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 +$25 +317%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $4 −$3 -74%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +133%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $73 +$10 +14%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $87 −$57 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 26 $19 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 25 $13 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 25 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 25 $9 +$5 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 25 $0 $0 +40%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 25? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 22 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 22 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $0 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 11 $35 −$30 -87%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 11 $15 +$16 +104%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% +$32
crypto 28% −$33
other 25% −$10
world 5% $0
weather 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 23¢ $5 39m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 23¢ $3 41m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 38¢ $3 59m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 76¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 34¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 20¢ $5 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 19¢ $9 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $10 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $10 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 19h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 39h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 94¢ $33 39h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $8 41h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut SELL Boston Breach 9¢ $1 42h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 33¢ $4 42h
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North SELL Wildcard Gaming 27¢ $2 42h
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North SELL Wildcard Gaming 14¢ $1 42h
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North BUY Wildcard Gaming 18¢ $3 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +34.5% +21.7% 59% 50% +25.6%
≤30d 26 +28.5% +16.2% 58% 46% +1.6%
≤90d 41 +11.1% +0.6% 56% 41% -4.6%
all 46 +3.5% -6.4% 52% 39% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 39% -6.4%
10% -15.3% 37% -15.3%
15% -23.5% 35% -23.5%
20% -31.0% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.78 · official $78.78 (match) · 157 history records