Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x027d…dd69 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$37
sports 34% +$69
crypto 6% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.4% -20.7% 30% 30% -9.1%
≤30d 10 -12.4% -20.7% 30% 30% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -12.4% -20.7% 30% 30% -9.1%
all 10 -12.4% -20.7% 30% 30% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 30% -9.1%
10% -28.3% 30% -17.8%
15% -35.3% 30% -25.7%
20% -41.6% 30% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$18 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions20
Markets (closed)10 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$32 +206%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $47 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 17h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.34 · official $398.36 (match) · 41 history records