Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x027c…a98d crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$352 (-55%) realized −$349 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$339
other 4% −$14
sports 2% −$10
weather 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -46.4% -51.5% 27% 27% -63.2%
≤30d 45 -46.4% -51.5% 27% 27% -63.2%
≤90d 45 -46.4% -51.5% 27% 27% -63.2%
all 45 -46.4% -51.5% 27% 27% -63.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.5% 27% -63.2%
10% ← realistic here -56.1% 24% -66.7%
15% -60.4% 20% -69.9%
20% -64.3% 16% -72.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 51
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $6 $0 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.17 · official $7.17 (match) · 89 history records