Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x027c…1175
other · 6 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$4 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 77¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$3
world 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 88¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 91¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 75% 25% -2.8%
≤30d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 75% 25% -2.8%
≤90d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 75% 25% -2.8%
all 4 -17.2% -25.1% 75% 25% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 25% -2.8%
10% -32.3% 0% -12.1%
15% -38.8% 0% -20.6%
20% -44.8% 0% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.86 · official $24.86 (match) · 9 history records