Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0276…8454 sports 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,009 (+8%) realized +$997 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%114W / 91L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$89
14 days+$158
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$395
other 35% +$382
world 11% +$274
crypto 6% −$146
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 48% -18.0%
≤30d 56 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 50% -3.1%
≤90d 205 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 51% -2.5%
all 205 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 51% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 51% -2.5%
10% -16.4% 45% -11.9%
15% -24.5% 40% -20.4%
20% -31.9% 31% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$28 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$997
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses114 / 91
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions3
Markets (closed)205 / 208
History coverage87d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 45¢ 57¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 −$41 -40%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $111 +$10 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 +$12 +118%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$51 +101%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$26 +129%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$19 -37%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$13 +64%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +136%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$16 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$13 +62%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +37%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$1 -1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,009 +$395 +39%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$4 +21%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$9 -31%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$25 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $102 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 28¢ $61 21h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 45¢ $102 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $56 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $51 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $76 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 41¢ $11 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $22 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $10 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.61 · official $138.21 · 453 history records