Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0275…d186 sports 384 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,495 (-5%) realized −$5,472 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%227W / 155L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$428est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$3,833
14 days−$2,799
30 days−$1,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$5,008
world 13% +$634
politics 10% −$261
other 4% −$1,222
crypto 1% −$38
economics 0% +$4
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -47.3% -52.3% 35% 31% -66.4%
≤30d 171 -9.5% -18.1% 59% 51% -18.4%
≤90d 294 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 48% -21.3%
all 382 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 45% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 45% -14.8%
10% -23.7% 28% -23.0%
15% -31.1% 18% -30.4%
20% -37.8% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$129 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$5,472
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses227 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$428
Open positions2
Markets (closed)382 / 384
History coverage163d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 65¢ 60¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Top Esports Challenger 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$19 -23%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $124 +$13 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$21 +84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$17 -41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$25 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$4 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $37 +$14 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$135 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$11 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$14 -28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $112 −$110 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $90 −$88 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$3 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $214 +$95 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$19 -18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $554 −$554 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $163 −$163 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Jun 10 $173 −$173 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 10 $142 −$30 -21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $123 −$123 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $51 8m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 69¢ $28 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $20 47m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 14¢ $4 48m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $10 50m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $15 51m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $10 59m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 39¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 43¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 74¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $20 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 66¢ $27 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 49¢ $20 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 37¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $97 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $94 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 89¢ $40 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 63¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 93¢ $67 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $50 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 59¢ $36 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 49¢ $30 24h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $47 25h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 46¢ $5 26h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $10 27h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $10 27h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 18¢ $5 27h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.57 · official $46.57 (match) · 1195 history records