Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0275…b649 sports 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-3%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate69%85W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$74
other 31% +$1
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 30% -12.6%
≤30d 99 -8.4% -17.1% 72% 29% -16.5%
≤90d 123 -8.3% -17.1% 69% 33% -12.7%
all 123 -8.3% -17.1% 69% 33% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 33% -12.7%
10% -25.0% 11% -21.0%
15% -32.2% 6% -28.6%
20% -38.9% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses85 / 38
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage31d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ONSIDE GAMING 97¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $25 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $3 $0 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$6 -66%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 −$8 -42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$4 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$2 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 +$8 +46%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 98¢ $30 4m
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL Riddle 100¢ $11 12m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $10 17m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 94¢ $13 19m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL ONSIDE GAMING 90¢ $13 24m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 91¢ $14 26m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $21 29m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 96¢ $10 35m
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 95¢ $10 41m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $12 49m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 94¢ $20 51m
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner SELL Riddle 100¢ $27 52m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 92¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 95¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 96¢ $25 1h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner SELL AGELITE 100¢ $15 1h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 96¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner BUY AGELITE 95¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner BUY AGELITE 95¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 86¢ $10 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $10 17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 84¢ $10 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $10 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $42.75 (match) · 295 history records