Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x026e…4345 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-6%) realized −$22 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$3
other 27% −$39
politics 11% +$20
tech 9% +$4
weather 9% −$68
crypto 2% −$11
finance 1% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 3 +765.3% +682.9% 100% 100% +37.0%
≤90d 48 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 25% -13.0%
all 52 +9.1% -1.3% 35% 25% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 25% -12.7%
10% -10.7% 15% -21.0%
15% -19.3% 10% -28.6%
20% -27.3% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions7
Markets (closed)52 / 59
History coverage113d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $88 $59 −$29 (-33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $41 $25 −$16 (-39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? Yes 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $92 +$25 +27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $1 +$9 +853%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$21 +269%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 26 $20 −$12 -58%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 25 $48 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 3? May 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? May 04 $19 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 3? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $49 +$9 +19%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $47 −$2 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $50 −$31 -63%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $47 +$14 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Trump nationalize elections? Apr 19 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 18? Apr 18 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 17? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Apr 18 $25 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 18 $62 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 17 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 17? Apr 17 $17 −$4 -26%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $75 −$3 -4%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 09 $5 +$1 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $20 −$12 -59%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 07 $90 −$2 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $70 +$15 +22%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $70 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 01 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on March 18? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 01 $0 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 18 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 76¢ $95 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $97 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $64 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $65 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 14d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes $10 15d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 16d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 21d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 33d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 33d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 35d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 35d
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $22 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $25 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 39d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 56d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 56d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 3? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 57d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes $5 57d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 3? BUY Yes $5 57d
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? SELL Yes 96¢ $59 58d
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 80¢ $49 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.83 · official $235.83 (match) · 155 history records