Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x026c…08ec
crypto · 29 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$51 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$128 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage138d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$158
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$170 +564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 23 $4 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 23 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 23 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 23 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 23 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 23 $19 −$5 -27%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 23 $4 +$1 +29%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 20 $1 $0 +22%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 20 $1 $0 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$129
world 1% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $38 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +44.0% +30.3% 56% 44% +92.6%
≤30d 9 +44.0% +30.3% 56% 44% +92.6%
≤90d 27 +4.4% -5.5% 56% 41% +29.3%
all 29 +6.4% -3.7% 59% 45% +29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 45% +29.3%
10% -12.9% 34% +16.9%
15% -21.3% 24% +5.6%
20% -29.0% 17% -4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records