Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x026b…8412 crypto 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (403 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,179 (-9%) realized −$4,200 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%211W / 648L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day402.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (403 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 681 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 15% -48.5%
≤30d 859 -46.9% -52.0% 25% 20% -35.0%
≤90d 859 -46.9% -52.0% 25% 20% -35.0%
all 859 -46.9% -52.0% 25% 20% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover402.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.0% 20% -35.0%
10% ← realistic here -56.6% 16% -41.2%
15% -60.8% 13% -46.9%
20% -64.6% 10% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$690
Realized−$4,200
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses211 / 648
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)859 / 466
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day402.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 859 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 0¢ 12¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$11 -2348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +1098%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$8 +2456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +422%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +1025%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$21 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$15 -222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$58 -127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $76 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $36 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.36 · official $759.66 · 3500 history records