Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x026b…8804 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,282 (+12%) realized +$2,282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%126W / 57L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day95.1pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$1,078
14 days+$2,171
30 days+$2,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,338
other 9% +$248
crypto 1% −$162
world 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +11.3% +0.7% 61% 57% +1.2%
≤30d 183 +18.3% +7.1% 69% 63% +2.1%
≤90d 183 +18.3% +7.1% 69% 63% +2.1%
all 183 +18.3% +7.1% 69% 63% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 63% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 50% -7.7%
15% -12.5% 40% -16.6%
20% -21.1% 30% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$59 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses126 / 57
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage17d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day95.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 +$107 +178%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $92 −$19 -20%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $33 +$12 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 +$53 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$10 +26%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $39 −$32 -80%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $40 +$20 +49%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 +$60 +80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 −$121 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $119 −$74 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $63 −$15 -24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $91 +$51 +56%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $121 +$100 +83%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $205 −$28 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $172 −$162 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $760 +$181 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $78 +$13 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $78 +$72 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $77 +$31 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $64 +$61 +96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $104 +$132 +127%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $388 +$195 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $90 −$74 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $180 −$3 -2%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $39 −$22 -56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $74 +$10 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$50 +51%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $173 −$56 -32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$22 +82%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$50 +102%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 +$197 +191%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $136 +$18 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $286 +$111 +39%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $287 +$38 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $445 +$27 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $302 −$201 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$7 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $106 −$42 -39%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$132 +264%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $128 +$72 +56%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $42 +$8 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $120 +$40 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 85¢ $35 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 85¢ $6 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 85¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 85¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 84¢ $42 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $42 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $41 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 30¢ $60 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 10¢ $10 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 90¢ $45 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $33 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 36¢ $0 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 36¢ $18 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 36¢ $17 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 36¢ $1 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 30¢ $30 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 54¢ $0 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 54¢ $27 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $62 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $9 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $41 7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $8 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $24 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 8h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $39 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1693 history records