Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x026a…f9a0 crypto 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$985 (-2%) realized −$985 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%97W / 31L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days−$78
14 days−$1,061
30 days−$1,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$825
other 0% −$175
world 0% −$167
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -1.4% -10.8% 72% 61% -10.3%
≤30d 39 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 59% -20.9%
≤90d 56 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 55% -16.8%
all 128 -3.8% -12.9% 76% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 43% -12.0%
10% -21.3% 20% -20.4%
15% -28.9% 12% -28.1%
20% -35.9% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$210 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses97 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage143d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $322 +$184 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $266 +$56 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $248 +$64 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $473 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $211 +$60 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $330 +$83 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $238 +$92 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $218 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $339 −$71 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $204 −$161 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $166 +$79 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$30 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $116 +$46 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$31 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $165 +$28 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$34 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $112 +$75 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $134 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$29 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $132 +$32 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $123 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $184 +$53 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $151 +$33 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $384 −$246 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $488 −$476 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $491 −$240 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $975 +$208 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $641 +$264 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $575 +$56 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,622 −$983 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $577 +$405 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? Jun 03 $805 −$805 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $499 +$305 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $591 −$590 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $464 +$143 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $827 +$177 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $748 +$61 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $1,119 −$748 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $1,736 +$285 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $1,043 +$147 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $322 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $323 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $266 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $283 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $312 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $248 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $486 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $473 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $271 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $413 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $67 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.54 · official $496.54 (match) · 346 history records