Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0268…6944 sports 1102 markets active 5d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$486 (+7%) realized +$488 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%582W / 512L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$58
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$369
other 30% +$15
crypto 27% +$40
world 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% +66.8%
≤30d 64 -23.2% -30.5% 38% 38% -23.7%
≤90d 747 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 39% -30.9%
all 1094 +6.1% -4.0% 53% 53% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 53% -3.7%
10% -13.2% 52% -12.9%
15% -21.6% 51% -21.3%
20% -29.3% 47% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$488
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses582 / 512
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1094 / 1102
History coverage153d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $109 +$58 +53%
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $44 −$16 -37%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$2 -50%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $3 +$5 +154%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: AC Esports vs RRQ Tora (BO3) - MPL Malaysia May 24 $4 +$6 +129%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: TYLOO vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs EVOS - Game 1 Winner May 24 $3 $0 -10%
Game Handicap: TLID (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) May 24 $2 +$2 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 +$5 +86%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) May 24 $5 +$5 +96%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 +$4 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $6 +$4 +79%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+1.5) May 24 $14 +$16 +107%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs ONIC - Game 1 Winner May 23 $3 $0 -7%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Team Liquid ID (BO3) - MPL In May 23 $4 −$1 -33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $6 +$4 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $4 +$6 +172%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Dewa United Esports May 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) May 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $13 +$7 +58%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $5 +$5 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) SELL Indonesia 48¢ $7 8d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 91¢ $117 8d
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) BUY Indonesia 34¢ $3 8d
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) BUY Indonesia 35¢ $2 8d
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) BUY Indonesia 36¢ $11 9d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 9d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 9d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 9d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 9d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 9d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 56¢ $78 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 18d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 21d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 24d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 24d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 24d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 23¢ $2 24d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 24d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 84¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.17 · official $40.18 (match) · 2644 history records