trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -90.1% | -91.0% | 0% | 0% | -97.7% |
| all | 25 | -15.2% | -23.3% | 52% | 28% | -19.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.3% | 28% | -19.8% |
| 10% | -30.6% | 24% | -27.5% |
| 15% | -37.3% | 20% | -34.5% |
| 20% | -43.5% | 4% | -40.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $67 | −$67 | -99% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? | Apr 08 | $10 | −$8 | -80% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? | Mar 19 | $25 | +$9 | +37% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | Mar 19 | $32 | +$9 | +27% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? | Mar 02 | $55 | +$2 | +3% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 02 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 30 | $109 | −$4 | -3% |
| Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? | Jan 14 | $30 | +$7 | +22% |
| Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Jan 10 | $20 | −$15 | -74% |
| Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 09 | $20 | +$11 | +56% |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-10? | Dec 10 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? | Dec 10 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? | Dec 10 | $40 | +$18 | +45% |
| Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Dec 04 | $65 | −$6 | -10% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Dec 03 | $40 | +$20 | +49% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? | Nov 27 | $61 | +$4 | +6% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 18 | $10 | −$4 | -41% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Nov 16 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Nov 16 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? | Nov 07 | $27 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | Nov 06 | $5 | +$2 | +43% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Nov 05 | $5 | −$4 | -71% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Nov 05 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $25 | +$2 | +7% |
| Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 31 | $80 | +$5 | +6% |