Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x0266…8d09 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$18
other 31% +$35
politics 16% +$1
culture 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 11 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 9% -6.6%
≤90d 11 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 9% -6.6%
all 53 +7.3% -2.9% 45% 6% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 6% -5.9%
10% -12.2% 6% -14.9%
15% -20.7% 6% -23.2%
20% -28.5% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.09 per $1 lost it wins $8.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage304d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $107 −$6 -6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $137 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $21 +$16 +72%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $6 +$17 +270%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $26 +$2 +7%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 -13%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 16 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $29 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Aug 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $39 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $45 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $74 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $73 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $61 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $34 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $47 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $47 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $61 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $60 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $34 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $19 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $28 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $24 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $10 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $4 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $18 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $39 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $9 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.96 · official $59.02 (match) · 342 history records