Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0264…3a3a world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$8
other 15% $0
sports 8% −$1
politics 7% −$4
tech 3% −$2
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -12.5% -20.8% 17% 0% -10.1%
all 36 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 3% -11.0%
10% -26.3% 0% -19.6%
15% -33.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage477d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $29 −$6 -20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $50 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $6 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 10 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 04 $12 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 35h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $49 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $50 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $43 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $7 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $50 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 8¢ $6 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 8¢ $6 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records