Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
02 0x025d…3f0c other 460 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$606 (+14%) realized +$495 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%193W / 175L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$27
14 days+$74
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$219
finance 26% +$189
sports 8% +$5
tech 7% +$31
crypto 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +61.3% +46.0% 59% 47% +11.1%
≤30d 140 +51.4% +37.0% 60% 45% +4.0%
≤90d 368 +30.0% +17.6% 52% 41% +0.2%
all 368 +30.0% +17.6% 52% 41% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.6% 41% +0.2%
10% +6.4% 34% -9.4%
15% -3.9% 29% -18.1%
20% -13.3% 25% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1,335
Realized+$495
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses193 / 175
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions92
Markets (closed)368 / 460
History coverage88d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 92 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 79¢ 100¢ $295 $375 +$80 (+27%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+3%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $304 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 92¢ 89¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? No 84¢ 99¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by June 30? No 89¢ 95¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 54¢ 90¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+67%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? No 59¢ 88¢ $11 $17 +$5 (+48%)
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? No 84¢ 97¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? No 72¢ 98¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+36%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $96 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June? No 91¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in June? No 72¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 71¢ 85¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? No 63¢ 96¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+53%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 69¢ 99¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+45%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? No 59¢ 96¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+63%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 89¢ 93¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $112 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +224%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +505%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $67 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +643%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $152.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$2 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +204%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.25 Week of June 15 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +144%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +47%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $134 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +89%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +341%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +288%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $1 +$6 +505%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +199%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $3 +$13 +367%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 09 $4 +$18 +488%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +133%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $21 +$2 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$21 +925%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $178 in June? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 98¢ $75 2h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 4h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 26¢ $2 12h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 95¢ $27 16h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY No 40¢ $1 21h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 97¢ $61 22h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of June 22 BUY No 39¢ $4 25h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 32h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 35¢ $1 33h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 34h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 34h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 39h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 40h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 97¢ $54 41h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 45h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 39¢ $51 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $246 5d
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.20 · official $1,335.21 (match) · 1024 history records