Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x025d…57d7 crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$2
14 days−$19
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$70
other 6% −$22
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 40% -10.1%
≤30d 49 -23.0% -30.3% 47% 39% -18.8%
≤90d 49 -23.0% -30.3% 47% 39% -18.8%
all 55 -22.7% -30.0% 47% 38% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 38% -16.6%
10% -36.7% 29% -24.6%
15% -42.8% 25% -31.8%
20% -48.4% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage96d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 36¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$9 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$4 +127%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$4 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$27 +107%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $101 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $102 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $42 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $24 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $16 +$17 +106%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$23 +87%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20? Mar 16 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 35m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 3h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $12 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $2.65 (match) · 112 history records