Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0253…bcad weather 293 markets active 2d ago coverage 497d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,911 (-14%) realized −$2,911 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate63%184W / 109L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$155
14 days−$143
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,564
weather 12% −$70
other 1% −$83
politics 1% −$35
culture 1% −$80
sports 0% −$63
tech 0% −$20
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -9.1% -17.8% 73% 36% -19.8%
≤30d 142 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 30% -13.2%
≤90d 148 -5.9% -14.9% 71% 30% -14.5%
all 293 -17.8% -25.6% 63% 28% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 28% -22.3%
10% -32.7% 14% -29.7%
15% -39.2% 8% -36.5%
20% -45.2% 6% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$39 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

497d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,911
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses184 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage497d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +395%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -54%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$9 +99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $14 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 39h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 52¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 966 history records