Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0251…a857 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+3%) realized +$157 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days+$360
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$215
crypto 40% −$149
sports 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 43 -22.6% -30.0% 23% 21% -7.2%
≤90d 43 -22.6% -30.0% 23% 21% -7.2%
all 43 -22.6% -30.0% 23% 21% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 21% -7.2%
10% -36.7% 21% -16.1%
15% -42.8% 19% -24.2%
20% -48.4% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$26 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage17d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $108 $85 −$23 (-21%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $442 +$150 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $692 +$274 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $388 +$274 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$155 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$38 +74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$31 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 +$133 +924%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$14 +125%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $461 −$32 -7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $499 −$120 -24%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$26 +125%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $97 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 13 $96 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $214 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $217 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $217 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $88 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $92 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $148 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $515 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $662 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $329 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $109 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $29 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $88 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $47 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $67 11d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 85¢ $147 11d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 12d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 13d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 13d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 13d
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.37 · official $85.37 (match) · 124 history records