Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x0251…6649 other 40 markets active 5d ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$9
politics 41% −$8
world 7% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$737) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage82d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,093 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $691 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? May 15 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Apr 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $61 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 8d
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 99¢ $1,015 8d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 99¢ $962 8d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $979 8d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $951 8d
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 8d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 99¢ $31 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 8d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,065 9d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records