Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x024f…1c51 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,530 (-25%) realized −$3,530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$601
7 days−$601
14 days−$2,294
30 days−$2,435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,185
other 1% −$142
crypto 1% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 37 +4.6% -5.3% 30% 30% -41.0%
≤90d 58 -19.9% -27.5% 26% 26% -38.6%
all 58 -19.9% -27.5% 26% 26% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 26% -38.6%
10% -34.4% 26% -44.5%
15% -40.8% 26% -49.9%
20% -46.6% 21% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$187 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage51d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jun 29 $285 −$280 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $325 −$321 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $301 −$296 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $32 −$32 -97%
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $199 +$135 +68%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $72 −$71 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $295 −$287 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $276 −$271 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $599 −$590 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $832 −$516 -62%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 16 $648 +$473 +73%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $299 −$299 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $249 +$136 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $204 −$199 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov Jun 15 $88 −$86 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $114 +$220 +192%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Zandschulp vs Wendelken Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Set 2 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$114 +112%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $149 −$146 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $173 −$24 -14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $479 +$191 +40%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $198 −$194 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$97 +95%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $137 −$135 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$48 +47%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$190 +1843%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $310 +$353 +114%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $87 −$85 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $384 −$376 -98%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Henri Squire vs Cristian Garin May 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Sinner vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 14 $305 −$301 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $1,171 −$252 -22%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $247 −$245 -99%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $896 −$879 -98%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5) May 13 $250 −$247 -99%
Bordeaux: Otto Virtanen vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 13 $1,148 +$900 +78%
Zagreb: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Daniel Galan May 13 $177 −$175 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $280 −$275 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez BUY Sebastian Baez 40¢ $285 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 52¢ $325 5h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $301 12d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 11¢ $32 12d
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro SELL Tiafoe 100¢ $333 12d
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro BUY Tiafoe 59¢ $199 12d
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Sonego 35¢ $72 12d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 15¢ $243 12d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 17¢ $51 12d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 43¢ $276 12d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $294 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $399 13d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $305 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 57¢ $125 13d
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) SELL Buse 100¢ $1,122 13d
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Buse 57¢ $648 13d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 26¢ $299 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $300 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $4 13d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $304 13d
Set 2 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet BUY Perricard 52¢ $15 13d
Set 2 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet BUY Perricard 58¢ $30 13d
Set 2 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet BUY Perricard 56¢ $30 13d
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet SELL Perricard 100¢ $385 13d
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet BUY Perricard 64¢ $249 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 14d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $204 14d
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Jones 37¢ $88 14d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 33¢ $102 14d
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Svajda BUY Svajda 36¢ $42 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records